Intra-ASEAN Balances and the Impact of South China Sea

Abstract

The South China Sea dispute is a notable problem area within ASEAN, between ASEAN and major powers such as China and the United States. The ongoing rivalry and the increasing militarization of the region due to territorial claims have strained relations between ASEAN member states. While ASEAN member states such as Vietnam and the Philippines advocate for a stronger ASEAN stance in response to China’s forceful stance, regionally powerful states such as Indonesia and Malaysia are more cautious and seek to avoid deteriorating relations with China. These countries also value economic connections. This has caused a schism within ASEAN, and the organization has struggled to portray a unified face. The failure to make a common declaration in 2012 owing to disagreements over the South China Sea issue represents an unusual breaking point in the ASEAN union. China has successfully exploited these divisions by pressuring ASEAN members to downplay the South China Sea issue while deepening mutually beneficial economic links. This presents a significant threat to ASEAN’s future. This study examines the political interests of the countries involved in the South China Sea conflict, ASEAN’s role in resolving the issue, and the major powers’ interest-driven political views toward the disagreement.