Macroeconomic Analysis of the Trilemma and the Triple Deficit Relationship
Keywords:
Trilemma, Triple Deficit, Macroeconomic Balance, Economic Crisis, DDeficits and Vulnerabilities.Abstract
The Turkish economy exhibits a robust interrelationship between the monetary policy trilemma and the triple deficit phenomenon. Within the context of the trilemma, Türkiye has struggled to establish equilibrium among exchange rate stability, autonomous monetary policy, and capital mobility; consequently, this disequilibrium has exacerbated the triple deficit—comprising fiscal deficit, current account deficit, and savings-investment gap. As a result of integration into the global financial system, Türkiye has encountered challenges that have further deepened the savings-investment gap. Low domestic savings rates, substantial external borrowing, and import dependency have contributed to the chronicity of the current account deficit; this situation has rendered the fiscal deficit and other macroeconomic imbalances increasingly complex. This mutual interaction limits Türkiye’s growth potential and threatens its economic stability. To reduce vulnerabilities, a comprehensive analysis of the causal relationships between the trilemma and the triple deficit is required. Such an analytical approach contributes to the literature on three levels: empirically testing theoretical models, offering policy recommendations based on comparative cross-country data, and presenting adaptable crisis-prevention policy frameworks for developing countries. To address these issues, Türkiye needs to prudently manage capital flows while maintaining an independent monetary policy, ensure exchange rate stability, increase domestic savings, adopt rational public expenditure policies, allocate resources to productive investments, reduce import dependency, and maintain fiscal discipline.
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